Raptor Witness
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First, let me say that I wish Chris the best and hope he returns soon. If he does return, I've got a serious math problem for him, which should peak his curiosity some. I also request the help of the readership here.
If you study carefully the odds of a prediction, you can figure out if a prophet is real or a fake. What I am about to show the crowd here is very real, but if my math is wrong, please let me know. I'm an average math student, but eager to learn.
On July 22, 2007 I proposed a hurricane contest on [another forum] I frequent, called Armageddononline.org. I have no moderating rights there and never have, but regardless, any edition is time stamped. It's an interesting little crew of free radicals whose main concern is with the end of the world. Various web crawlers, Webarchive, and Google cache save copies of this work.
The thread I'm going to take you to is entitled ["2007 Hurricane Season."] There are a lot of photos of this and that, but the real meat of what I want you to see, is located on [post #4] and [post #5.]The contest I proposed to members of the forum this year, listed two simple criteria. Pick the ...
1) Strongest Atlantic storm, in terms of the lowest pressure reached.
2) Most devastating strike on the U.S. mainland, in terms of dollars.
Although the 2007 hurricane season isn't officially over until November, for most weather hounds who follow the season carefully, the upper level winds are so unfavorable right now, that it's difficult to imagine any further serious development, this year.
To figure the odds of getting each and even both questions correct, I put on my thinking cap and have done some rough calculations for the contest. The problem was a lot simpler than I first thought, as it's really a simple equation of proportions.
I could be forgetting something, so if any variable is omitted, please fill me in. I've also proposed the equation on a statistical forum for their review and feedback.
According to a recent article in [Science Daily,] the long-term average number of named storms in the Atlantic any give year is 10, and the long term average strike potential on the U.S. mainland is 0.5.
So the equation for getting both variables correct is as follows.
10/1 X 10/0.5 =200/1 The odds of getting both Dean and Humberto correct. The odds of getting them in the correct order is further multiplied by 2 for an over all ratio of 400 to 1.Now I don't know how many here have ever gambled, but I used to play the horses. I played them for years, and I never once hit an Exacta that would of paid me $800 for a $2 wager. I can't recall ever even seeing one, although I imagine that they occur on occasion. However, the field of horses would almost certainly be greater than the number of named storms we've had this season. By the way, an "exacta" is where you pick the first and second place finishers in a horse race.
Any help with my math is appreciated, especially from Chris. I've come to love him as much as everyone else here, and I know that he likes an intellectual challenge. So is my math correct? If it is, then we'll move on the next set of variables, because this goes well beyond a simple hurricane contest. I've got many more related variables.
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